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Wednesday, 16 September 2015, 17:40 HKT/SGT
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Source: HKTDC
Global Uncertainty Drags Down HKTDC Export Index
Bohai Rim Enterprises Seek Global Opportunities via Hong Kong

HONG KONG, Sept 16, 2015 - (ACN Newswire) - Uncertainties in the global economic environment have affected exporter confidence in Hong Kong, according to the latest Export Index announced today by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC). For the third quarter of 2015, the Export Index plunged to 37.1, down from 46.8 in the previous quarter, its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2012. A reading below the watershed 50 mark reflects negative sentiment among exporters. Meanwhile, the HKTDC has revised its 2015 export growth forecast, from three per cent to zero per cent.

Global Uncertainty Drags Down HKTDC Export Index

Lingering Concerns

HKTDC Director of Research Nicholas Kwan said at today's press conference that, due to worse-than-expected global economic performance and lingering concerns about an economic downturn, Hong Kong exports are inevitably under pressure.

"The Greek debt crisis continues to drag down the recovery of the European Union economy," said Mr Kwan. "While the Chinese mainland has introduced stimulus measures, economic growth there continues to moderate. In addition, as the extent of the recent renminbi depreciation is far smaller than for other Southeast Asian currencies, it will have little impact on Hong Kong's exports."

Mr Kwan added that while the United States' economic growth will remain stable, the imminent interest rate hike will likely increase volatility in capital flows and exchange rates in the emerging markets. "The global economy now faces several potential risks and the trading environment for the rest of the year will be challenging," he said.

Export Sentiment for Major Markets Drops

HKTDC Principal Economist (Global Research) Daniel Poon said that the third quarter Export Index dropped 9.7 points from the previous quarter, to stand at 37.1. Indices fell for all sectors except jewellery, with the toy industry suffering the biggest slide from 52.5 to 35.6. The export index for the machinery industry was 40.7, while for other industries including electronics, clothing, jewellery and timepieces, the index fell below 40.

Negative sentiment dominated the key markets, with indices for the US, the EU, Japan and the Chinese mainland all moving lower. In particular, the index for the EU was the lowest at 42.8. Mr Poon said that the Trade Value Index also fell to 42.6. Only the timepiece industry maintained its value index above the 50 mark (51.4), indicating that Hong Kong timepiece traders generally believe that prices will stay at present levels, though room for further increases was limited.

In addition, the Purchasing Index in the third quarter was 38.2, suggesting that purchasing sentiment had trended lower.

Hong Kong: Preferred "Going out" Platform for Bohai Rim Enterprises

Amid the mainland's economic slowdown, many Chinese enterprises continue to aggressively invest overseas. According to the latest data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) rose from US$101 billion in 2013 to roughly US$116 billion in 2014, making China the world's third-largest source of FDI for three consecutive years.

HKTDC Principal Economist (Greater China) Billy Wong noted that many mainland enterprises investing overseas and seeking foreign business partners prefer Hong Kong as their "going out" services platform.

Mr Wong said that Hong Kong's services sector should tap this trend by supporting more mainland enterprises in their overseas investment. The HKTDC Research Department surveyed 330 mainland enterprises in May, of which more than 90 per cent were from the Bohai Rim region, including Shandong and Beijing. Among the survey's objectives was to understand the intentions of mainland enterprises in transforming, upgrading and seeking overseas partners.

Strong Demand for Hong Kong's Professional Services

The survey also studied the demand for professional services in the region, following similar studies in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta in the past two years.

The results showed that 96 per cent of the enterprises surveyed would consider, or had already committed to increasing investment to boost competitiveness in the next one-to-three years through transforming and upgrading. The investment goals of these Bohai Rim enterprises included improving product design and technology R&D capabilities, which accounted for 45 per cent of all the enterprises surveyed. Some 61 per cent of them said that their focus was mainly the domestic market, while 29 per cent said they would focus more on exploring mature markets. Twenty per cent of the respondents said they would target emerging overseas markets. Mr Wong said the response indicated that, similar to those from Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim companies are focused more on the domestic market than overseas markets. Their strategy differed from those of Pearl River Delta-based companies, which placed equal emphasis on both domestic and overseas investment.

The survey also revealed that the types of professional services sought by Bohai Rim companies include financial services, such as banking and financing, as well as legal and accounting services. In addition, 88 per cent of them said they would seek overseas partners and were particularly interested in cooperating with foreign brands. Respondents indicated that they were prepared to invest in foreign enterprises to develop overseas/mainland sales networks.

Most enterprises surveyed (60%) expressed interest in using Hong Kong's professional services to seek partners and conduct related business activities. "The Bohai Rim region has great demand for professional services for foreign investment," said Mr Wong. "Despite being a long distance from Hong Kong, these companies have a good impression of Hong Kong services. As mainland outward investment activities gather pace, including from the Bohai Rim region, Hong Kong services providers will see more opportunities."

Photo Download: http://bit.ly/1OXip8p

References:
HKTDC Research website http://research.hktdc.com/
HKTDC Business-Stat Online http://bso.hktdc.com/bso/jsp/bso_freq_stat.jsp

Videos:
First Port of Call for "Going Out" https://youtu.be/RzOm5m8blwM

China's Belt and Road Initiative:
Belt and Road: China's New Strategy http://www.hktdc.com/info/webcast/v/en/en/1X04CLFU/
Belt and Road: Global Trade Opportunities http://www.hktdc.com/info/webcast/v/en/en/1X04CLGT/

For more HKTDC Research about Belt and Road: http://bit.ly/1iv7CbH

Contact:
HKTDC
Communication and Public Affairs Department
Nick Waters
Tel: +852 2584 4517
Email: nick.waters@hktdc.org


Topic: Research / Industry Report
Source: HKTDC

Sectors: Daily News
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